Marquette polled 801 registered voters via phone interviews from Oct. 3-9 (652 of those are considered likely voters), with more than half of the interviews coming before last Friday's debate. Barnes did not officially concede the race Tuesday night or Wednesday morning as he waited for all the votes to be counted. This race is over," Johnson said in the statement. In 2016, Trump secured just 46.5 percent of Wisconsin's votes. The two candidates are scheduled to hold their second and final televised debate on Thursday. In a general election match up, Mandela beats Ron Johnson by 2 points, more than any of his opponents. Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for reelection against Democratic Lt. Gov. According to OpenSecrets, Johnson raised $31.5 million, spent $28 million, and had $3.5 million in cash on hand, as of October 19. Due to a planned power outage on Friday, 1/14, between 8am-1pm PST, some services may be impacted. But a successful rebrand, as well as unrelenting attacks against Barnes on crime and criminal justice issues, appeared to help Johnson's standing among voters. He trails narrowly among White voters, getting a similar share of them that Biden got in 2020. Republicans have hammered Barnes and other Democratic candidates on crime in recent weeks, while Democrats see abortion rights as an issue that will energize their base in November. Editor's note: WPR's Jonah Chester, Joe Schulz and Andrea Anderson contributed reporting to this story. Barnes made an early bet to run as a progressive and largely did not move to the center. Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger Lt. Gov. That means Barnes' narrow lead is well within the survey's margin of error. Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., poses for photos with supporters at a election night party in Neenah, Wis., Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. National media reports say the red wave that Republicans hoped for in this years midterm elections has been downgraded to more of a trickle. The poll, whose results were released on Wednesday, has Johnson racking up support of 52 percent of likely voters, compared with Barnes 46 percent. Baldwin was first elected to the Senate in 2012 and took office in January 2013. "So, I think that's what I'm watching most.". Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes were locked in a race that was too close to call early Wednesday. The Most Interesting Articles, Mysteries and Discoveries. Johnson has maintained a conservative voting record during his two terms in the. A Fox News survey of. Mandela Barnes on Tuesday. Adam Edelman is a political reporter for NBC News. Wisconsin's GOP senator, Ron Johnson, will face off against state Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes in November. Anna Moneymaker/Gabriela Bhaskar/Getty Images, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. Barnes sought. Barnes appeared with Lasry and Godlewski as they made their announcements, praising their campaigns. Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers is a Democrat who won the office in 2018. Barnes is tied with Johnson in the head-to-head, a sign of Barnes' latest strength and indicating serious weakness on the part of the 11-year incumbent. Barnes' campaign and allied outside Democratic groups launched a series of attacks against Johnson painting him as an out-of-touch millionaire who worked to secure tax cuts for himself and billionaire donors in 2017. This race is over.. 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That poll surveyed 756 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points. 2022 #WISen General Election Poll: Mandela Barnes (D) 43% Ron Johnson (R-Inc) 43% @claritycampaign / @TheOtherMandela (D) Internal ~ 756 LV ~ 9/8-9/11 https://t.co/OXfsRBbJJX Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. Democrat Russ Feingold held the seat now occupied by Johnson from 1993 until he was defeated by the Republican in 2010. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsins Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. For an optimal experience visit our site on another browser. Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has won re-election to a third term in Wisconsin, NBC News projects, narrowly defeating Democrat Mandela Barnes. Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting. AP Photo/Mike Roemer, "We've looked very closely at the numbers," said Johnson. The race between Johnson and Barnes was rated as "tilt Republican" by Inside Elections, a "toss-up" by The Cook Political Report, and "leans Republican" by Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. This year, Johnson is the only incumbent Republican senator running for reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. Tony Evers, sought to portray Johnson as a champion of monied interests and pledged to work with lawmakers to enact policies that would benefit working-class families, including an expansion of the child tax credit. The Associated Press called the race for Johnson at 11:46 a.m. Wednesday as the senator led Barnes by 27,374 votes. Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Johnson had built a small lead in most polls over Barnes though within the margin of error after he began his relentless focus on crime, and his victory suggests the strategy was a success. With less than 100 days to go before the . Barnes' campaign, and other Democratic strategists, viewed the poll as an outlier. The new survey found Johnson up just 1 percentage point among likely Wisconsin voters, with 50 percent saying theyd learn toward the Republican if the election were held today and 49 percent saying the same of Barnes. What it boils down to, according to University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee emeritus professor Mordecai Lee, is "we should all just agree that this is an even race. Lt. Gov. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. Anthony Chergosky is an associate professor of political science at UW-La Crosse. Now, it's Barnes who is relatively unknown among Wisconsin voters. After Barnes won an all but uncontested U.S. Senate Democratic primary in August, the lieutenant governor led Johnson by 7 percentage points in Marquette polling. That was still the case in the law school's final pre-election poll, which found 43 percent of those surveyed had a favorable opinion of Johnson and 46 percent had an unfavorable view. Johnson is running for reelection to a third term, while Barnes hopes to topple the GOP. According to exit polls, nearly equal shares of voters in Wisconsin mentioned honesty and integrity as the most important candidate quality (36%) as sharing values with voters (35%). Mandela Barnes. Besides Mandela and Ron, Gov Tony Evers, a nominee from the Democratic Party, and . The incumbents leads were reversed, however, when the CNN poll results were expanded to include all registered voters in the state. With 98.91% of the vote in, Johnson had 50.5% . I will do everything I can to help make things better for Wisconsinites and to heal and unify our country," he continued. When Johnson first ran for public office in 2010 and even during his first reelection bid, Chergosky said many voters hadn't yet formed an opinion. With 98 percent of votes counted, AP results showed Johnson defeating Barnes 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, who was first elected during the conservative Tea Party wave in 2010, defeated Democratic Lt. Gov. "No matter what anyone says, we are committed to making sure every vote is counted. For questions or comments, contact WPRs Audience Services at 1-800-747-7444, email listener@wpr.org or use our Listener Feedback form. Johnson leads with men and older voters.. In order to do so, the Republican-controlled state Legislature would need to pass a constitutional amendment. Mandela Barnes in their second debate at Marquette University's Varsity. "There is no path mathematically for Lt. Gov. MIDTERM STUDY FINDS MAINSTREAM MEDIA GAVE REPUBLICANS 87% MORE NEGATIVE COVERAGE THAN DEMOCRATS. It's official: Mandela Barnes has the best chance of anyone in this Senate primary to defeat Ron Johnson. Part of the shift can be attributed to likely independent voters. Only 1 percent of likely voters are still undecided in the gubernatorial race, according to the poll, which surveyed 652 likely voters in Wisconsin from Oct. 3 to Oct. 9 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The new poll shows 51% of independents likely to cast a vote support Johnson, compared with 45% backing Barnes. The Democrat's lead was just outside the survey's 3 percent margin of error. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. "Of course, we've said that before," Chergosky said. Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson suspended his Senate campaign on Monday, followed by Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry on Wednesday. Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ron Johnson, right, and Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes participate during a televised debate Thursday, Oct. 13, 2022, in Milwaukee. At Johnson's election night watch party in Neenah, the crowd was in high spirits throughout the evening giving loud cheers as they watched Fox News election coverage of the race. A central Wisconsin food pantry grew fivefold during the pandemic. That's still slightly higher than the 36 percent who view Johnson favorably. Meanwhile, 7 percent said they did not know who they would vote for, while 3 percent said they would vote for someone else, would not vote or refused to answer. After midnight, the gap between Barnes and Johnson closed slightly and the audience in Neenah became less energetic. Approximately 50% of likely voters said they support Johnson in the race, compared to 48% for Barnes, according to the Marquette poll of 679 likely voters. Wisconsin has been viewed as a swing state in recent elections but has generally gone for Democratic presidential candidates in elections going back to 1988. But there are key differences this year, said Chergosky. The margin of error for the poll's likely voters sample is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. The man leading the charge to unseat Johnson this year is the polar opposite of the millionaire Boomer conservative: Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, a 35-year-old Black former community organizer. In response to the August polls, a spokesperson for Barnes' campaign said the results show that "Wisconsin voters know how Ron Johnson has spent his decade-plus in office enriching himself and his wealthy donors on the backs of their hard work.". Johnson got a boost from voters' concerns about crime and economic issues, while Barnes had strong support from voters who saw abortion as one of the top issues. Marquette's August survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. The three Democrats, who had endorsed Barnes after they had. 1998 - 2023 Nexstar Media Inc. | All Rights Reserved. He said residents should also expect "a new low" in terms of how negative campaign ads will be this election cycle. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, Feingold ran for his old seat in a 2016 rematch. "I do believe that this time truth has prevailed over the lies, over the character assassination," Johnson said. He said the August polling results from multiple sources show him "this is a very competitive race and Democrats have a compelling opportunity to unseat Ron Johnson.". Keep updated on the latest news and information. If Barnes were to win, he'd become Wisconsin's first Black senator. US Congress; Getty; Marianne Ayala/Insider, Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. 4:12. The June poll by Marquette Law School showed that Biden's approval rating is deep underwater with Wisconsin voters, which could bode poorly for Democrats in November. | Morry Gash/Associated Press. ", Sen. Ron Johnson and Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes side by side. That poll . Democrat Mandela Barnes and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson sparred over their respective ties to the middle class and their views on crime in the second and possibly final Wisconsin Senate debate. Barnes' lead disappeared after Johnson's campaign and Republican groups went on the attack with negative ads. The Associated Press called the race for Johnson at 11:46 a.m. Wednesday as the senator led Barnes by 27,374 votes. 1:51 Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson has surged to a 6-point lead in his reelection race against Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes, according to Wednesday's Marquette University Law. It was all to play for Thursday night as Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson met Democratic challenger, Lt. Gov. At the beginning of the election cycle, Johnson was seen as one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the U.S. Senate. Union rep: Employees reporting illness after working on cleanup for East School culture wars fuel top House GOP bill, Watch live: White House monkeypox response team holds briefing, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Lt. Gov. By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider Johnson struck a somber note when reflecting on the closeness of his race. The race was one of the most expensive election contests in the country, according to a firm that tracks political spending. Mandela Barnes. Morry Gash/Associated Press ", Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., speaks to supporters after arriving at an election night party in Neenah, Wis., Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. Johnson maintained a conservative voting record during his two terms in the Senate. Follow her on Twitter: https://twitter.com/hausofcait. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson has won re-election to a third term in Wisconsin, NBC News projects, narrowly defeating Democrat Mandela Barnes. Business; Politics; Military; Elections; Law; Immigration; Technology. A Fox News poll released Aug. 18 had Barnes with 50 percent of the support of likely voters and Johnson trailing with 46 percent. Mandela Barnes cited a decade-old vote by Sen. Ron Johnson in favor of a balanced budget, but the best suggestion is cuts to law enforcement might have happened down the line as a. A Fox News poll released Aug. 18 had Barnes with 50 percent of the support of likely voters and Johnson trailing with 46 percent. Barnes was supported by 46 percent of registered Wisconsin voters, and the senator was backed by just 44 percent. Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson has won reelection to a third term, narrowly defeating Democratic Lt. Gov. Johnson and Barnes spent much of their first televised debate, held on Friday, discussing abortion and crime. But I just want to give you guys the sense that this race is over.". Stay informed with WPR's email newsletter. Johnson, a former plastics executive and political ally of former President Donald Trump, has long tacked to the right in his voting record while representing Wisconsin a swing state that nonetheless retains a robust conservative base. Despite it being the number one issue for voters in several recent polls, however, the candidates were not asked a direct . Adam Edelman is a political reporter for NBC News. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates both the Senate and gubernatorial races as toss-ups. The lieutenant governor and former State Assembly member is expected to face a difficult campaign as he seeks to unseat Johnson, who has served in the Senate since 2011. But Evers' approval rating remains above water. In the June poll released by Marquette Law School testing each candidate's strength against Johnson, Barnes hits or approaches those benchmarks, while Lasry falls far short of the numbers needed . defeated former Democratic U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ninety-three percent of Democrats support Barnes and 96 percent of Republicans support Johnson, while 96 percent of Democrats support Evers and 88 percent of Republicans support Michels. Voters in Wisconsin grade President Biden's performance, criticize and defend him on top issues, Gavin Newsom attacks federal judge overseeing California's assault weapons ban: 'This sickens me', NRSC launches funds to give Republican Senate candidates a 'war chest' for key 2024 Senate races, House Republicans slam DOD's 'unacceptable' delay in providing answers on improper release of military records, Biden admin rolls out cybersecurity strategy aimed at thwarting borderless cyber threats, ransomware. Barnes enjoyed a 4-point lead over Johnson if the election were held today among all registered voters, and a 2-point lead in favorability. In Marquette's September poll, Evers led Michels among likely voters 47% to 44%. Ron Johnson's Road to Reelection Is Getting Bumpy. Reach her at caitlin.yilek@cbsinteractive.com. Recent polling shows Lt. Gov. On Sunday, the Trafalgar Group released the results of a survey of Wisconsin voters conducted between Aug. 22 and Aug. 25. The Wisconsin Senate candidate Mandela Barnes speaks at a rally on Saturday in Milwaukee. Among those citing integrity as most important, Barnes won 54% of the vote, while among those saying a candidate who shares values with them is most important, 60% voted for Johnson. With 98 percent of votes counted, AP results showed Johnson defeating Barnes 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent. He pulled ahead of Barnes in recent polling after a September onslaught of negative ads that painted Barnes as a soft-on-crime, radical liberal. The small margins indicate a tight race with the midterms just two weeks away. Sign up for notifications from Insider! Heres how you can help. Powered and implemented by FactSet Digital Solutions. The latest poll shows that among registered voters, Evers is leading Michels 46% to 41%, with Beglinger at 7%. Lt. Gov. An older poll, conducted last September by Clarity Campaign Labs for Barnes' campaign, showed the Democrat tied with Johnson. The 2016 Marquette poll showed a full 30 percent of respondents didn't know enough about Johnson to form a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him. Recent polling shows Lt. Gov. Analyzing the Wisconsin Senate and governor's races, the poll found both races deadlocked: Mr Barnes trails incumbent Sen Ron Johnson by. The margins of error for registered voters and likely voters are +/- 4.3% and +/-4.8% respectively. In an eight-candidate field, where several rivals were still actively campaigning, Barnes won more than 77 percent of the vote. 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